artigos em PDF sobre relações internacionais, economia e história.

Não vai dar para postar, por que ficaria muito pesado por isso vou colocar o título quando explicativo e o autor.


Venezuela: A House Divided

http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/latin-america/venezuela/b028-venezuela-a-house-divided.pdf

O crisisgroup é um dos mais importantes grupo de analise de relações internacionais quando se fala em crise.

--------------------------

The Effects of Media Coverage on Crisis Assessment and
Early Warning in the Middle East
Deborah J. Gerner and Philip A. Schrodt

Tese clássica dos anos 1990 sobre a Mídia e a Cobertura.

http://eventdata.psu.edu/papers.dir/EWER.pdf

--------------

THE URBAN BIAS IN RESEARCH ON CIVIL WARS
STATHIS N. KALYVAS

http://stathis.research.yale.edu/files/SecSt_kalyvas.pdf

Kaalyvas tem uma legião de seguidores sobre analise de Guerra Civil, devido ao seu livro The Logic of Violence in Civil War, quase que leitura obrigatória hoje em dia para estudos da área e contra-insurgência.

-----------

http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/cgi-bin/pull/DocPull/8139-51B1/33014349/DB_GEP_2013-05-15_0900b8c086cb784b.pdfhttp://pull.db-gmresearch.com/cgi-bin/pull/DocPull/8139-51B1/33014349/DB_GEP_2013-05-15_0900b8c086cb784b.pdf

Global Economic Perspectives
Financial Crises: Past and Present
Deutsche Bank - Markets Research

______________________________________

A Guerra Tripolitan: Um caso de estratégias evolutivas
Sean D. Lovett

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-tripolitan-war-a-case-for-evolving-strategies

----------------------------
The Arab Spring and Climate Change
A Climate and Security Correlations Series

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2013/02/28/54579/the-arab-spring-and-climate-change/

Conflitos.

Siria -

Ensaio de 60 páginas em inglês: "The Assad Regime: From Counterinsurgency to Civil War"

http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/TheAssadRegime-web.pdf

Syria’s Mutating Conflict
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/128-syrias-mutating-conflict

Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena: The Diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip Revolutions
http://www.princeton.edu/~mbeissin/beissinger.modrev.article.pdf
O artigo é importante para entender a teoria da difusão.


Authoritarian Responses to Foreign Pressure: Spending, Repression, and Sanctions
http://www.recercat.net/bitstream/handle/2072/41071/WP_IBEI_21.pdf?sequence=1



A importância da seca no Conflito Sírio:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/lack-of-water-sparked-syrias-conflict-and-it-will-make-egypt-more-militant-too/

Argelia, Mali e contrabando.

http://carnegieendowment.org/files/paranoid_neighbor.pdf

Organized crime and conflict in the sahel -sa hara region
http://carnegieendowment.org/files/sahel_sahara.pdf

Organized crime and conflict in the sahel -sahara region
http://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/comments/2011C01_lac_ks.pdf

teoria de estabilidade
Forecasting Political Instability: Results from a Tournament of Methods
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2156234


What Do We Know About Authoritarianism After Ten Years?
http://ase.tufts.edu/polsci/faculty/art/whatDoWeKnowAboutAuthoritarianism.pdf

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT DEMOCRATIZATION AFTER TWENTY YEARS?
Barbara Geddes
http://ussc.edu.au/s/media/docs/other/Geddes1.pdf
Um dos textos mais importantes para entender as dificuldades ou impossibilidades das transições.

A analise curta sobre a primavera árabe da Laurel E. Miller
http://www.rand.org/blog/2012/10/dont-blame-unrest-on-arab-spring.html

The Mirage of the Arab Spring by Seth G. Jones
http://www.rand.org/blog/2013/01/the-mirage-of-the-arab-spring.html

Sobre Brasil

Lula’s Brazil Perry Anderson
http://mansueto.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/lula_s-brazil.pdf

On the Duration The duration of large-scale, violent civil conflict increases of Civil War
Paul Collier
Pank Hoeffler


http://economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk/12058/1/DURATION.pdf

INSTITUTIONS AND THE RESOURCE CURSE*
Halvor Mehlum, Karl Moene and Ragnar Torvik
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2006.01045.x/pdf

Resource curse or not: A question of appropriability
http://www.degit.ifw-kiel.de/papers/degit_11/C011_050.pdf

STATHIS N. KALYVAS

THE PARADOX OF TERRORISM IN CIVIL WAR
http://stathis.research.yale.edu/files/Paradox.pdf

Ethnic Defection in Civil War
http://stathis.research.yale.edu/documents/Ethnicdefection_000.pdf


Christian Democracy
http://stathis.research.yale.edu/documents/annurev.polisci.11.021406.pdf


Introduction: integrating the study of order, conflict, and violence
http://stathis.research.yale.edu/documents/KSM_OCV.pdf

1998. Democracy and Religious Politics: Evidence from Belgium. Comparative Political Studies 31:3, 291-319
http://stathis.research.yale.edu/files/democracy_belgium.pdf

1994. Hegemony Breakdown: The Collapse of Nationalization in Britain and France. Politics and Society 22:3, 317-349
http://stathis.research.yale.edu/files/hegemony.pdf

Vou ler o "Brasil do Lula".

É o obituário de um dos maiores nomes de RI, retirei apenas um artigo da revista, fica em inglês por que teria que reescrever todo.

todos os artigos estão aqui:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/05/15/requiem_for_a_realist_kenneth_waltz?wpisrc=obnetwork




http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/05/13/kenneth_n_waltz_1924_2013

Stephen M. Walt


I learned this morning that Kenneth N. Waltz, who was arguably the preeminent theorist of international relations of the postwar period, had passed away at the age of 88. Ken was the author of several enduring classics of the field, including Man, the State, and War (1959), Foreign Policy and Democratic Politics (1967), and Theory of International Politics (1979). His 1980 Adelphi Paper on nuclear proliferation ("The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better"), was also a classic, albeit a controversial one. One of his lesser achievements was chairing my dissertation committee, and he was a source of inspiration throughout my career.

I've written a tribute to Waltz's scholarship before, in the preface to a festschrift for Ken edited by Andrew Hanami. But today I want to celebrate his role as a teacher, based on some remarks I made at the 2010 meeting of the International Studies Association, where Waltz received an award for lifetime achievement. With a few edits, here's what I said back then:

Ken Waltz is widely recognized as one of the preeminent IR scholars of the postwar period, but he was also responsible for training an impressive number of graduate students, including Barry Posen, Stephen Van Evera, Bob Powell, Avery Goldstein, Christopher Layne, Benny Miller, Karen Adams, Shibley Telhami, Jim Fearon, William Rose, Robert Gallucci, Andrew Hanami, and many others. I want to say a few words about what it was like to have him as a teacher and advisor, and why I think he was so effective at it.

First, Ken was trained in political theory and renowned as a theorist of international relations, but he was deeply interested in real-world issues and his example showed us how theory could be used to illuminate crucial policy issues. In addition to his own theoretical work, Ken wrote about Vietnam, nuclear strategy, economic interdependence and globalization, nuclear proliferation, the U.S. defense budget, and even the Rapid Deployment Force. For those of us who were interested in international security affairs, his model was wonderfully liberating. Ken showed that you could be a theorist and a social scientist without joining the "cult of irrelevance" that afflicts so much of academia.

Indeed, Ken's work on these topics underscored why theory is so important. Having lots of facts at one's disposal didn't help if you were thinking about those facts in the wrong way. In a world where most people think theory and practice have little in common, Ken was teaching us that they were inextricably intertwined. That's why he got a lot of things right that others got wrong. He was right about Vietnam, right about which side was winning the Cold War, right about the basic principles of nuclear deterrence, and right about the continued relevance of politics, even in the era of economic "globalization." A little theory can go a long way, and his case, it led in the right direction.

Second, Ken encouraged his students to ask big questions, largely by the force of his own example. Man, the State, and War organizes and critiques several centuries of writing on the causes of war. Theory of International Politics presents a powerful general theory explaining the behavior of self-regarding actors in anarchy. His essay on proliferation attacks the conventional wisdom with ruthless logic, just as his earlier essays on interdependence showed where liberal theories had gone off-course and why power was still central. Ken encouraged us to tackle puzzles whose answers were not immediately available and to be fearless about challenging entrenched orthodoxies.

Third, and perhaps most important, Ken held the bar high and encouraged his students to have equally high standards. The first time I laid eyes on Ken was the orientation meeting for new grad students at Berkeley in 1977. Ken was director of graduate studies that year and had to give the welcoming speech. I don't remember most of what he said, except that he emphasized that grad school took too damn long and that we should all plan on finishing in four years ... or at most five. His message was simple: "Get your coursework done, write your MA paper, pass your qualifying exams ... then write the thesis ... four years! Why wait?" The average at Berkeley in those days was more like seven or eight years, so he was raising the bar from the very start.

I also remember my first day in Poli Sci 223, his graduate seminar in IR theory. I was already convinced that everyone else in the room knew more than I did, and Ken began by setting out his basic ideas about the field and about theory. At one point he made some critical remarks about two professors I had studied with as an undergraduate -- nothing overly disparaging, just some critical comments on their conception of theory -- which immediately made me think that not only did I know less than every one else in the room, everything I had learned up till then was wrong. The real lesson, however, was that grad school was not about learning what other people thought, it was about learning to think for yourself. And Ken gave us the freedom to do that. He never tried to force his students to agree with his views or to write books and articles designed to reinforce his own work or burnish his own reputation.

Fourth, Ken placed great value on writing well. His students are a diverse group -- and certainly none of them are clones of Waltz himself -- but all of them are very clear writers, regardless of which methods or approaches they use. Ken used to tell us to read Fowler's Modern English Usage and Strunk and White's Elements of Style, and he'd give little mini-lectures on his linguisic pet peeves in the middle of a seminar. In Waltz's view, a scholar's first duty is to make it easy for the reader to figure out what you were saying. If the reader is confused, that's probably your fault.

This leads me to my most important encounter with him, which occurred as I was nearing the end of my dissertation. Writing a dissertation for Ken Waltz was intimidating from the start -- remember, his dissertation was Man, the State, and War -- and if you'd read that book and then read Theory of International Politics you knew you were dealing with someone with a razor-sharp ability to cut through a bloated argument and find the jugular. After two years of work I sent Ken the main analytical chapters of my thesis, and all I had left -- or so I thought -- was a short conclusion. Thinking I was nearly done, I accepted a post-doc for the following year.

And then I got a letter back from Ken, giving his comments on the chapters I had sent him earlier that month. His letter began by declaring that he had read the first twenty-five pages with "increasing dismay." "They are terrible," he wrote, and then went on: "Ask yourself why this is so. Were you trying to write too fast, or did you just not know what you were trying to say?" He continued in this vein for a few more paragraphs, making it clear that what I had sent was -- to quote the letter again -- "nowhere near ready to be an acceptable dissertation." His bracing conclusion: "You have to face this squarely, and you are the only one who can fix these problems. So enjoy a busy summer." By the way, there was little P.S. at the end, telling me that he thought it would be an excellent thesis once I had worked out the kinks.

I was basically curled up in a ball under my desk by the time I was finished reading this missive, and it was too early in the day to go for a stiff drink. I didn't enjoy the experience very much at the time, and you might think he was being harsh or even cruel. In fact, Ken had done me an enormous service. He was telling me that there were no short-cuts if I wanted to make a serious scholarly contribution and reminding me that hasty or poorly thought-out work deserved to be treated harshly.

Looking back, I'm grateful that he didn't spare my feelings, and there's a lesson there for all of us. Professors aren't really helping our students when we go easy on them, and students should in fact be grateful when their advisors occasionally take them to the woodshed.

So apart from his extraordinary scholarly achievements, Ken Waltz was also an inspiring and accomplished teacher. I was extraordinarily fortunate to have the opportunity to learn from him, and the study of international politics is much the richer for his remarkable contributions.

Addendum: All I would add to this today is the reminder of Waltz's deep aversion to foolish military excesses. He served in the U.S. Army during the Korean War and was a realist rather than a pacifist. But like Hans Morgenthau, he was an early opponent of the Vietnam War and deeply skeptical of the paranoid threat-inflation that has informed so much of U.S. foreign and defense policy. Like many other realists, he also opposed the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The field of international relations would be better off with more people like Ken, and the world would be better off if more great powers -- especially the United States -- paid more attention to his insights.

Artigo lido.
Muito bom.
Tece um ótimo panorama dos dos governos do Lula e o da Dilma.
Resume bem os escândalos de corrupção, as conquistas sociais e a política externa do Governo Lula.
Faz um bom panorama das análises favoráveis e desfavoráveis do período do Lula no Poder. O artigo mostra, por exemplo, como os programas sociais do governo Lula foram importantes para a população mais pobre do Brasil e como seu governo foi importante para o setor de exportações.
Ele faz um paralelo interessante entre Lula e Rooselt quando critica a visão do FHC de que Lula seria um novo Getúlio Vargas e do próprio Lula quando se vê como um novo Jusselino Kubstichec.
O artigo é bem acessível para quem tem um inglês intermediário.

Hal 9000 escreveu:Artigo lido.
Muito bom.
Tece um ótimo panorama dos dos governos do Lula e o da Dilma.
Resume bem os escândalos de corrupção, as conquistas sociais e a política externa do Governo Lula.
Faz um bom panorama das análises favoráveis e desfavoráveis do período do Lula no Poder. O artigo mostra, por exemplo, como os programas sociais do governo Lula foram importantes para a população mais pobre do Brasil e como seu governo foi importante para o setor de exportações.
Ele faz um paralelo interessante entre Lula e Rooselt quando critica a visão do FHC de que Lula seria um novo Getúlio Vargas e do próprio Lula quando se vê como um novo Jusselino Kubstichec.
O artigo é bem acessível para quem tem um inglês intermediário.

Eu gosto de ler esses PDF, principalmente quanto é curto...texto muito longo no computador é complicado.

Mas, para quem gosta de paquistão e drones...acaba de sair o artigo do crisisgroup sobre o tema.


http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/south-asia/pakistan/247-drones-myths-and-reality-in-pakistan.pdf

Compre um tablet.
Há marcas para todos os bolsos.

Hal 9000 escreveu:Compre um tablet.
Há marcas para todos os bolsos.

Provavelmente eu vou comprar, mas estou adiando, eu tenho hoje uma certa aversão de avançar nesse mundo digital.


Mais artigos:
Political foundations of the resource curseB
http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/jrobinson/files/jr_polfoundations.pdf

O artigo discute recursos naturais x utilização deles pelos grupos de poder.

Modeling Inefficient Institutions∗ Daron Acemoglu
http://economics.mit.edu/files/5697


Searching for the Finance-Growth Nexus in Libya Serhan
Cevik and Mohammad Rahmati.pdf
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1392.pdf


----------------------------------
Obituário de um dos maiores pesquisadores de RI

I learned this morning that Kenneth N. Waltz, who was arguably the preeminent theorist of international relations of the postwar period, had passed away at the age of 88. Ken was the author of several enduring classics of the field, including Man, the State, and War (1959), Foreign Policy and Democratic Politics (1967), and Theory of International Politics (1979). His 1980 Adelphi Paper on nuclear proliferation ("The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better"), was also a classic, albeit a controversial one. One of his lesser achievements was chairing my dissertation committee, and he was a source of inspiration throughout my career.

I've written a tribute to Waltz's scholarship before, in the preface to a festschrift for Ken edited by Andrew Hanami. But today I want to celebrate his role as a teacher, based on some remarks I made at the 2010 meeting of the International Studies Association, where Waltz received an award for lifetime achievement. With a few edits, here's what I said back then:

Ken Waltz is widely recognized as one of the preeminent IR scholars of the postwar period, but he was also responsible for training an impressive number of graduate students, including Barry Posen, Stephen Van Evera, Bob Powell, Avery Goldstein, Christopher Layne, Benny Miller, Karen Adams, Shibley Telhami, Jim Fearon, William Rose, Robert Gallucci, Andrew Hanami, and many others. I want to say a few words about what it was like to have him as a teacher and advisor, and why I think he was so effective at it.

First, Ken was trained in political theory and renowned as a theorist of international relations, but he was deeply interested in real-world issues and his example showed us how theory could be used to illuminate crucial policy issues. In addition to his own theoretical work, Ken wrote about Vietnam, nuclear strategy, economic interdependence and globalization, nuclear proliferation, the U.S. defense budget, and even the Rapid Deployment Force. For those of us who were interested in international security affairs, his model was wonderfully liberating. Ken showed that you could be a theorist and a social scientist without joining the "cult of irrelevance" that afflicts so much of academia.

Indeed, Ken's work on these topics underscored why theory is so important. Having lots of facts at one's disposal didn't help if you were thinking about those facts in the wrong way. In a world where most people think theory and practice have little in common, Ken was teaching us that they were inextricably intertwined. That's why he got a lot of things right that others got wrong. He was right about Vietnam, right about which side was winning the Cold War, right about the basic principles of nuclear deterrence, and right about the continued relevance of politics, even in the era of economic "globalization." A little theory can go a long way, and his case, it led in the right direction.

Second, Ken encouraged his students to ask big questions, largely by the force of his own example. Man, the State, and War organizes and critiques several centuries of writing on the causes of war. Theory of International Politics presents a powerful general theory explaining the behavior of self-regarding actors in anarchy. His essay on proliferation attacks the conventional wisdom with ruthless logic, just as his earlier essays on interdependence showed where liberal theories had gone off-course and why power was still central. Ken encouraged us to tackle puzzles whose answers were not immediately available and to be fearless about challenging entrenched orthodoxies.

Third, and perhaps most important, Ken held the bar high and encouraged his students to have equally high standards. The first time I laid eyes on Ken was the orientation meeting for new grad students at Berkeley in 1977. Ken was director of graduate studies that year and had to give the welcoming speech. I don't remember most of what he said, except that he emphasized that grad school took too damn long and that we should all plan on finishing in four years ... or at most five. His message was simple: "Get your coursework done, write your MA paper, pass your qualifying exams ... then write the thesis ... four years! Why wait?" The average at Berkeley in those days was more like seven or eight years, so he was raising the bar from the very start.

I also remember my first day in Poli Sci 223, his graduate seminar in IR theory. I was already convinced that everyone else in the room knew more than I did, and Ken began by setting out his basic ideas about the field and about theory. At one point he made some critical remarks about two professors I had studied with as an undergraduate -- nothing overly disparaging, just some critical comments on their conception of theory -- which immediately made me think that not only did I know less than every one else in the room, everything I had learned up till then was wrong. The real lesson, however, was that grad school was not about learning what other people thought, it was about learning to think for yourself. And Ken gave us the freedom to do that. He never tried to force his students to agree with his views or to write books and articles designed to reinforce his own work or burnish his own reputation.

Fourth, Ken placed great value on writing well. His students are a diverse group -- and certainly none of them are clones of Waltz himself -- but all of them are very clear writers, regardless of which methods or approaches they use. Ken used to tell us to read Fowler's Modern English Usage and Strunk and White's Elements of Style, and he'd give little mini-lectures on his linguisic pet peeves in the middle of a seminar. In Waltz's view, a scholar's first duty is to make it easy for the reader to figure out what you were saying. If the reader is confused, that's probably your fault.

This leads me to my most important encounter with him, which occurred as I was nearing the end of my dissertation. Writing a dissertation for Ken Waltz was intimidating from the start -- remember, his dissertation was Man, the State, and War -- and if you'd read that book and then read Theory of International Politics you knew you were dealing with someone with a razor-sharp ability to cut through a bloated argument and find the jugular. After two years of work I sent Ken the main analytical chapters of my thesis, and all I had left -- or so I thought -- was a short conclusion. Thinking I was nearly done, I accepted a post-doc for the following year.

And then I got a letter back from Ken, giving his comments on the chapters I had sent him earlier that month. His letter began by declaring that he had read the first twenty-five pages with "increasing dismay." "They are terrible," he wrote, and then went on: "Ask yourself why this is so. Were you trying to write too fast, or did you just not know what you were trying to say?" He continued in this vein for a few more paragraphs, making it clear that what I had sent was -- to quote the letter again -- "nowhere near ready to be an acceptable dissertation." His bracing conclusion: "You have to face this squarely, and you are the only one who can fix these problems. So enjoy a busy summer." By the way, there was little P.S. at the end, telling me that he thought it would be an excellent thesis once I had worked out the kinks.

I was basically curled up in a ball under my desk by the time I was finished reading this missive, and it was too early in the day to go for a stiff drink. I didn't enjoy the experience very much at the time, and you might think he was being harsh or even cruel. In fact, Ken had done me an enormous service. He was telling me that there were no short-cuts if I wanted to make a serious scholarly contribution and reminding me that hasty or poorly thought-out work deserved to be treated harshly.

Looking back, I'm grateful that he didn't spare my feelings, and there's a lesson there for all of us. Professors aren't really helping our students when we go easy on them, and students should in fact be grateful when their advisors occasionally take them to the woodshed.

So apart from his extraordinary scholarly achievements, Ken Waltz was also an inspiring and accomplished teacher. I was extraordinarily fortunate to have the opportunity to learn from him, and the study of international politics is much the richer for his remarkable contributions.

Addendum: All I would add to this today is the reminder of Waltz's deep aversion to foolish military excesses. He served in the U.S. Army during the Korean War and was a realist rather than a pacifist. But like Hans Morgenthau, he was an early opponent of the Vietnam War and deeply skeptical of the paranoid threat-inflation that has informed so much of U.S. foreign and defense policy. Like many other realists, he also opposed the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The field of international relations would be better off with more people like Ken, and the world would be better off if more great powers -- especially the United States -- paid more attention to his insights.

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/05/13/kenneth_n_waltz_1924_2013

The Credibility Paradox: Violence as a Double-Edged Sword in International Politics (International Studies Quarterly, December 2013)

http://www.academia.edu/3500525/The_Credibility_Paradox_Violence_as_a_Double-Edged_Sword_in_International_Politics_International_Studies_Quarterly_December_2013_

um artigo que analisa a violência no processo de barganha, um dos dados é que a violência contra civis, em oposição à violência contra outros combatentes armados, tem como uma baixa taxa de sucesso...

marcelo l. escreveu:

Hal 9000 escreveu:Compre um tablet.
Há marcas para todos os bolsos.

Provavelmente eu vou comprar, mas estou adiando, eu tenho hoje uma certa aversão de avançar nesse mundo digital.

Eu pensava exatamente assim... até ganhar um Kindle.

Hoje continuo lendo muitos livros impressos, mas tem MUITA versão digital difícil de se encontrar... ler no monitor me cansa muito a vista, então eu prefiro ler direto num aparelho sem luz de fundo do que ter que imprimir páginas e páginas...

O Kindle lê PDF o só EPUB?
...
Estou lendo um artigo sobre Drones no Paquistão.
Muito foda.

Hal 9000 escreveu:O Kindle lê PDF o só EPUB?
...
Estou lendo um artigo sobre Drones no Paquistão.
Muito foda.

Lê PDF, DOC, os tais de AZW e AZW1 (próprios da Amazon), epub acho que não, eu pego o que encontro e transformo em .DOC, fica perfeito, pra ler PDFs é melhor deitar em 90 graus, pq a página fica maior.

O meu aparelho é o mais simples, tem uns que leem txt, mp3 e outros arquivos.

The great American withdrawal
Ari Shavit |

http://warsclerotic.wordpress.com/2013/05/30/the-great-american-withdrawal/

Curioso por que o Mexico hoje é o queridinho do mercado.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/latin-america/mexico/b029-justice-at-the-barrel-of-a-gun-vigilante-militias-in-mexico

http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Israel%20Palestine/142-buying-time-money-guns-and-politics-in-the-west-bank

ediv_diVad escreveu:

Hal 9000 escreveu:O Kindle lê PDF o só EPUB?
...
Estou lendo um artigo sobre Drones no Paquistão.
Muito foda.

Lê PDF, DOC, os tais de AZW e AZW1 (próprios da Amazon), epub acho que não, eu pego o que encontro e transformo em .DOC, fica perfeito, pra ler PDFs é melhor deitar em 90 graus, pq a página fica maior.

O meu aparelho é o mais simples, tem uns que leem txt, mp3 e outros arquivos.

David, já leu algo do crisisgroup...normalmente são esses PDFs que me interessam. Sempre que eu ouço é dá, mas quem eu falo nunca lê.


por sinal um html sobre educação e mundo árabe...

http://carnegie-mec.org/2013/05/20/review-of-citizenship-education-in-arab-nations/g5bd#

Não, nunca li...

ediv_diVad escreveu:Não, nunca li...

Daqueles pdfs normalmente sempre leio os deles, por que uma razão simples, todas as analises relativamente copiam o que eles escrevem, só mudam a tendência ideológica ou acrescentam algum acontecimento.

li sobre as democracias cristãs,esses artigos são muito bons ,vou ler outros

Logo aparece o pdf do artigo abaixo.

IRAQ'S SECTARIAN CRISIS REIGNITES AS SHI'A MILITIAS EXECUTE CIVILIANS AND REMOBILIZE

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iraqs-sectarian-crisis-reignites-shia-militias-execute-civilians-and-remobilize

Três estudos sobre o modelo para analisar probabilidades de instabilidades políticas.

A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability
autores
JJack A. Goldstone, George Mason University
Robert H. Bates, Harvard University
Ted Robert Gurr, University of Maryland, College Park
Michael Lustik, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
Monty G. Marshall, George Mason University
Jay Ulfelder, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
Mark Woodward, Arizona State University
http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/documents/PITF/PITFglobal.pdf

Forecasting Instability: Are Ethnic Wars and Muslim Countries Different?
Ted Robert Gurr
University of Maryland
Mark Woodward
Arizona State University
Monty G. Marshall
George Mason University
http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/documents/PITF/PITFethnicmuslim.pdf

Modeling Transitions to and from Democracy
Jay Ulfelder
http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/documents/PITF/PITFmodeltrans.pdf


COmo teoricamente o Charles Tilly é um dos autores mais citados nessa linha de trabalho
http://www.scielo.br/pdf/ts/v16n2/v16n2a12.pdf

inequality_democratization_and_de_democratization, Chales Tilly
http://pics3441.upmf-grenoble.fr/articles/demo/inequality_democratization_and_de_democratization.pdf


War Making and State Making as Organized Crime
http://www.jesusradicals.com/wp-content/uploads/warmaking1.pdf

Aqui um texto sobre o tilly e resumindo a teoria
http://www.whiteoliphaunt.com/duckofminerva/2013/06/war-made-the-state-and-the-state-made-war.html

--------------
site de pesquisas de opinião
http://www.pewglobal.org/

Saiu hoje o informe da ONU ou descobri agora, como não li, só passei mas é bom ver como se faz analise de um conflito em termos oficiais:
http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/CoISyria/A-HRC-23-58_en.pdf
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A ótica do FMI
Suécia
http://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2013/053113b.htm

Alemanha
http://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2013/060313.htm

Japão
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13194.htm
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Senado Brasileiro
O que distingue o sistema educacional de alto desempenho da Finlândia?
Tatiana Feitosa de Britto

http://www12.senado.gov.br/publicacoes/estudos-legislativos/tipos-de-estudos/textos-para-discussao/td-129-2018o-que-e-que-a-finlandia-tem-2019-notas-sobre-um-sistema-educacional-de-alto-desempenho


versão resumida: http://www.brasil-economia-governo.org.br/2013/05/27/o-que-distingue-o-sistema-educacional-de-alto-desempenho-da-finlandia/?utm_source=feedly

O PDF abaixo discursa sobre os custos e benefícios das democracias parlamentares contra presidencial. Torsten Persson e Guido Tabellini os efeitos econômicos da Constituição que segue abaixo.

http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~iversen/PDFfiles/Persson%26Tabellini2003.pdf

Um resumo e crítica é fornecida:
http://economics.mit.edu/files/4468


Trabalho do cientista político famoso Juan Linz , sugeriu que os sistemas presidencialistas podem criar mais instabilidade política e pode ter um tempo mais difícil a consolidação da democracia, como exemplificado pelos golpes frequentes contra as democracias latino-americanas presidenciais.

The Perils of Presidentialism
Linz, Juan J. (Juan José), 1926

PERRY ANDERSON - homeland
http://newleftreview.org/II/81/perry-anderson-homeland


JOACHIM JACHNOW - WHAT’S BECOME OF THE GERMAN GREENS?
http://newleftreview.org/II/81/joachim-jachnow-what-s-become-of-the-german-greens

Dois bons artigos sobre um livro que deve fazer sucesso...lá fora claro.



http://www.thehindu.com/books/books-reviews/killing-them-softly-with-rules/article4404845.ece

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/indiaatlse/2012/06/13/red-tape-akhil-gupta-on-bureaucracy-and-poverty-in-india/

Entrevista com James Fegurson.


http://www.humanityjournal.org/blog/2013/06/humanity-interview-james-ferguson-pt-1-development-swarming-state-power

http://economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk/12055/1/2002-01text.pdf

Greed and Grievance in Civil War
 Paul Collier

Post do Drunkeynesian: http://drunkeynesian.blogspot.com.br/






O catalão Pol Antràs, professor de Harvard e pesquisador com foco em economia internacional, macroeconomia e teoria aplicada,publicou no Twitter ao longo das últimas semanas sua lista de 50 papers favoritos. Aí vão, em ordem cronológica. Para quem preferir, montei uma pasta no Google Drive (https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B8yOsNFcxSV5SVNSRW9CLWlYanc&usp=sharing) com todos os arquivos.

1. Stability in Competition, Harold Hotelling, 1929

2. Cost Curves and Supply Curves, Jacob Viner, 1932

3. The Nature of the Firm, Ronald Coase, 1937

4. [url=http://www.sba.muohio.edu/dunlevja/Course Links/EC441/stolper_samuelson.pdf]Protection and Real Wages[/url], Wolfgang F. Stolper / Paul A. Samuelson, 1941

5. The Use of Knowledge in Society, Friedrich Hayek, 1945

6. A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare, Kenneth J. Arrow , 1950

7. Some Thoughts on the Distribution of Earnings, A.D. Roy, 1951

8. A Value for n-Person Games, Lloyd Shapley, 1953

9. [url=http://www.drphilipshaw.com/A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth.pdf]A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth[/url] (1956) e Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function (1957), Robert M. Solow

10. An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money, Paul A. Samuelson, 1958

11. The Problem of Social Cost, Ronald Coase, 1960

12. A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, Robert Mundell, 1961

13. The Economics of Information, George J. Stigler, 1961

14. Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis, Gary S. Becker, 1962

15. Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care, Kenneth J. Arrow, 1963

16. National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model, Peter A. Diamond, 1965

17. The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism, George A. Akerlof, 1970

18. On the Measurement of Inequality, Anthony B. Atkinson, 1970

19. Optimal Taxation and Public Production I: Production Efficiency, Peter A. Diamond / James A. Mirrlees, 1971

20. [url=http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic500592.files/lucas neutrality of money.pdf]Expectations and the Neutrality of Money[/url], Robert E. Lucas, Jr, 1972

21. Job Market Signaling, Michael Spence, 1973

22. Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?, Robert J. Barro, 1974

23. [url=http://www.econ.yale.edu/~dirkb/teach/pdf/rothschild/1976 equilibrium in competitive insurance.pdf]Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: an Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information[/url], Michael Rothschild / Joseph Stiglitz, 1976

24. [url=http://gongwai.xaufe.edu.cn/englishonline/wsjs/jpkc/cn_interntlfinance/ckwx/5/Expectation and exchange rate dynamic.pdf]Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics[/url], Rudiger Dornbusch, 1976

25. Rules Rather Than Discretion: the Inconsistency of Optimal Plans, Finn E. Kydland / Edward C. Prescott, 1977

26. Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods, Rudiger Dornbusch / Stanley Fischer / Paul Samuelson, 1979

27. On the Size Distribution of Business Firms, Robert E. Lucas, Jr, 1978

28. Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence, Robert E. Hall, 1978

29. [url=http://pioneer.netserv.chula.ac.th/~kkornkar/inter trade course/a model of Innovation.pdf]A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income[/url], Paul Krugman, 1979

30. [url=https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~qc2/BA532/1979 Rand Holmstrom.pdf]Moral Hazard and Observability[/url], Bengt Holmstrom, 1979

31. [url=http://www.uni-konstanz.de/FuF/wiwi/iwb/Downloads/Krugman. Scale economies.pdf]Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade[/url], Paul Krugman, 1980

32. [url=http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic542908.files/Myerson 1981 optimal auctions.pdf]Optimal Auction Design[/url], Roger B. Myerson, 1981

33. Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model, Ariel Rubinsten, 1982

34. Selection and the Evolution of Industry, Boyan Jovanovic, 1982

35. [url=http://homepage.ntu.edu.tw/~yitingli/file/macro and money/Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium.pdf]Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium[/url], Peter A. Diamond, 1982

36. Strategic Information Transmission, Vincent P. Crawford / Joel Sobel, 1982

37. Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device, Carl Shapiro / Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1984

38. On the Mechanics of Economic Development, Robert E. Lucas, Jr, 1988

39. On Money as a Medium of Exchange, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki / Randall Wright, 1989

40. Industrialization and the Big Push, Kevin M. Murphy / Andrei Shleifer / Robert W. Vishny, 1989

41. Endogenous Technological Change, Paul M. Romer, 1990

42. Property Rights and the Nature of the Firm, Oliver Hart / John Moore, 1990

43. [url=http://www.gsid.nagoya-u.ac.jp/sotsubo/Papers/Economic Growth in a Corss Section of Countries by Robert Barro.pdf]Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries[/url], Robert Barro, 1991

44. The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development, Michael Kremer, 1993

45. Distributive Politics and Economic Growth, Alberto Alesina / Dani Rodrik, 1994

46. Protection for Sale, Gene M. Grossman / Elhanan Helpman, 1994

47. Credit Cycles, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki / John Moore, 1997

48. Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality, Daron Acemoglu, 1998

49. Income inequality in the United States, 1913–1998, Thomas Piketty / Emmanuel Saez, 2003

50. The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity, Marc J. Melitz, 2003